10 year Treasury
Live · 15m30 year fixed mortgage
Weekly · PMMSLive 10 year yield refreshes every 15 minutes. The 30 year figure is Freddie Mac's weekly survey, released Thursdays.
Latest update · October 30, 2026
Rates fell anyway
Mortgage rates fell this week despite a run of news that should have pushed them higher. The Fed held at 3.75% to 4.00% on Wednesday, but two officials voted for an immediate hike, and futures price roughly an 85% chance of one on December 9. Third quarter GDP grew at a 3.4% annual rate, above forecasts, and core PCE inflation rose to 3.1%. Even so, Freddie Mac's 30 year average fell to 7.24%, its lowest reading of October and down from 7.40% at the peak.
30 Year Fixed, Week by Week
Freddie Mac PMMS weekly average, September 17 to October 29, 2026
Two straight weekly declines off the 7.40% peak, but still well above the 6.17% average of a year ago. Bars scaled from 6.25% to 7.50%. Source: Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey.
The bond market explains why. After the Fed decision, the 2 year yield fell while the 10 year rose to 5.05%. Traders read the meeting as less hawkish than feared but still demanded extra yield to hold long dated debt. Then Alphabet fell 12.6% on Thursday, its worst day on record, and money rotated out of the largest tech stocks. Part of it went into Treasuries, and the 10 year closed Thursday at 4.98%. Mortgage rates followed.
How the Curve Reacted
Treasury closing yields, daily par curve, October 27 to 29, 2026. Fed decision on Wednesday.
On Fed day the short end fell while the long end rose, a market expecting a gentler Fed but still charging more to hold long debt. Thursday's stock selloff pulled both lower. Source: U.S. Treasury.
The relief is real but small. Rates are still about a full point above last year's 6.17%, and inflation is moving up, not down. The October jobs report on November 6 and October CPI on November 10 will set the tone for the December 9 meeting.
Why mortgage rates follow the 10 year Treasury, not the Fed
The Fed sets the federal funds rate, which is an overnight rate banks charge each other. A 30 year mortgage is a long term loan, so it's priced off long term rates. In practice most mortgages are refinanced or paid off when the home sells, well before 30 years, so lenders and the investors who buy mortgage bonds price them against Treasuries of similar life. That is why the 10 year is the benchmark.
It's also why the two can move in opposite directions. The Fed can cut while mortgage rates rise, if bond investors expect inflation or demand more yield to hold long debt. And it's why a Fed decision often moves mortgage rates less than people expect.
What moves the 10 year
- Inflation expectations. Investors want to be paid more than inflation will erode. Hot inflation reports push yields up.
- The expected Fed path. The 10 year partly reflects where investors think short rates will average over the next decade.
- Term premium. This is extra yield demanded for the risk of holding long debt. It rises with heavy government borrowing, fiscal worries, or geopolitical shocks, even when inflation is calm.
- Flight to safety. When stocks sell off, money often moves into Treasuries, which pushes yields down. October 29, 2026 was a clear example.
The spread: why mortgage rates sit above Treasuries
Mortgage rates usually run 1.5 to 2 percentage points above the 10 year over long stretches. The gap covers lender costs and the risk that borrowers refinance when rates drop, which investors in mortgage bonds don't like. When markets are volatile, that gap widens. This week, with the 10 year near 5% and the 30 year at 7.24%, the spread was about 2.2 points, on the wide side. A narrowing spread can lower mortgage rates even if Treasuries don't move.
What a Mortgage Rate Is Made Of
Week ending October 29, 2026, approximate
Either piece can move the rate a borrower sees. A calmer market that narrows the spread can bring rates down even if the 10 year stays put. Source: U.S. Treasury, Freddie Mac.
What it means for a San Diego buyer
At San Diego County's September detached median of $1,079,000, with 20% down, here's monthly principal and interest at different rates.
Monthly Payment on the County Median
$1,079,000 detached median, 20% down, $863,200 loan, 30 year fixed
Every quarter point moves the payment by about $145 a month. Taxes, insurance, and HOA dues are extra. Median from the Greater San Diego Association of Realtors (September 2026). Rates are Freddie Mac's conforming benchmark, and loans above the local conforming limit are priced separately.
For the income side of the same math, see how much income it takes to buy in Carmel Valley and San Diego. For why higher rates also keep homes off the market, see the two locks holding San Diego inventory in place.
Frequently Asked Questions
Why do mortgage rates go up when the Fed cuts rates?
Because mortgage rates follow the 10 year Treasury, not the federal funds rate. If investors expect higher inflation or more government borrowing after a cut, long term yields can rise, and mortgage rates rise with them.
What 10 year Treasury yield would bring mortgage rates down to 6%?
At a typical spread of 1.5 to 2 percentage points, a 30 year mortgage rate near 6% has historically lined up with a 10 year yield around 4% to 4.5%. If the spread narrows from today's level, it would take less of a drop in Treasuries.
Does a stock market selloff lower mortgage rates?
Often, yes, at least briefly. When investors sell stocks, some of that money moves into Treasuries, which pushes yields down. That is part of why mortgage rates fell the week Alphabet had its worst day on record in October 2026.
How much does a quarter point in mortgage rates cost on a San Diego home?
At San Diego County's September 2026 detached median of $1,079,000 with 20% down, every quarter point moves monthly principal and interest by about $145. At 7.24%, the payment is about $5,883 a month before taxes, insurance, and HOA dues.
How often is this page updated?
When something meaningfully moves rates, not on a fixed schedule. The date at the top shows the latest update, and earlier commentary is linked below.
Earlier rates commentary
- August 20, 2026The Treasury steps into the bond market twice, expanded long dated buybacks as the 30 year yield hit its highest since 2007.
- July 31, 2026The Fed held rates, and mortgages hit a 12 month high anyway, a hawkish hold and a term premium selloff.
- July 20, 2026Inflation cooled, Carmel Valley didn't wait, a soft June CPI and an easing 10 year.
- April 2, 2026Gas prices and mortgage rates, the oil shock and the first leg up in rates.
- March 27, 2026The bond market is signaling stress, the 10 year at 4.42% and what it meant for real estate.
Realtor, Balboa Real Estate · DRE #02099073
Institutional fixed income trader turned San Diego real estate advisor